Thank you for this excellent analysis! I do hope the EU Elites read this and understand it, thus reducing their senseless urge for all-out war against Russia. They have trained their populations to believe that Ukraine can win while Russia is failing. Their recent Euro90B "loan" to Ukraine will likely backfire when THEY end up paying reparations to Russia. They could come to their senses and understand that cooperation with Russia instead of outright hate, would be the best outcome for all.
Unfortunate the EU elites live in a bubble and tbh I wonder if they have the mental capacity to understand these kind of analyses. They probably read other ‘analyses’, that Ukraine is winning, just a little push and the Russians will surrender. After which they can claim the frozen assets. They have also been told that Putin is weak (it’s actually a dobbelganger cause the real Putin had cancer or some other disease we read multiple times) and the Kremlin is in a state of panic because of different fractions. Putin’s ratings, the dobbelganger, have gone down to a meager 72%. Millions have died on the battlefields, Ukraine is targeting multiple infrastructure in Russia, the Russians are weak, demotivated and desperate for a way out of this war. Most importantly: we are the good guys, we occupy the moral high ground and thus victory will be ours. Warwick Powell is a kremlin stooge, telling Russian propaganda.
The politicians are also surrounded by many yes sayers, who filter the information so the politicians only hear what they want to hear.
Time for a change. But who is going to make it happen?
Ideally, the Russians, meaning Pres. Putin, follow Iran's example. Invite these very ignorant EU Elites, primarily the E3 plus the EU Commission "leaders" including Ursula Wonderland, to Moscow, and read them the riot act - if ONE MORE of the drones/missiles that you mfg and supply to Ukraine is involved in an attack on Russia, this _____ (fill in the blank) is going to happen, and if that scenario occurs, then actually perform the predicted retaliation. Take out a NATO base, or whatever.
One does wonder if a massive decapitation strike on the capital, the oligarchs and leadership with consequent losses would have been kinder than exterminating 1 million soldiers, many press ganged.
This is an excellent question, though in practice not an easy alternative option to execute,
The main issue i guess is that without some kind f government structure the Nazis would just go crazy killing anyone speaking Russian leading to horrendous civilian casuaties.
Even now, it is not clear what happens after the tipping point. It appears Putin very much wants a kiev government, initially lead by zelensky as the best hope for stability in rump .
The disaster scenario is no Kiev government, Nazis being chased by Russian soldiers across a 600k sqkm country with all the pre-thought of an Iraq or an Afghanistan.
The only significant country in Nato to have actually doubled or more head count and Defence spend has been Poland. I think there has to be a role planned for them. Possibly explaining recent Kiev hostility to Poland - the burial of Melnik surely has to have been a deliberate provocation
Drone math suggests denial of food and fuel to Crimea this summer. There is already gas rationing and all but military vehicles are banned from the M14. Which makes them easier for drones to find and destroy. Air defense units are dwindling too. Crimea will soon be clear of occupiers.
May 23 (Reuters) - Russia has introduced fuel rationing for cars in the port city of Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea, the local governor said.
Mikhail Razvozhayev said that, due to unspecified "logistical challenges", fuel sales in the largest Crimean city and home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet have been limited to 20 litres (5.3 gallons) per car until the situation stabilises.
On Wednesday, Reuters reported that virtually all major oil refineries in central Russia had been forced to halt or scale back fuel output following Ukrainian drone attacks in recent days.”
Other analysts paint a very different picture, understand the Russian loss rate to be much higher, and provide sources for all their data, assumptions and assertions.
This article gives no consideration to the impact of drone technology, nor to Ukraine having largely eliminated its dependencies on the US.
Even at a higher loss rate the modelling points to a January window. Drones have little to do with how the attrition unfolds. See the original essay for the details.
There is a word for the analysts hyping up larger Russian loss rates: propagandists.
Throughout the war we have been told that the Russians were running out of missiles (a narrative from 2022), were scavenging microchips from washing machines, or were fighting with shovels. And yet the videos of press gangs dragging civilians into vans to become short-lived cannon fodder are coming at a steady stream from Ukraine, and not at all from Russia.
There are a lot of cynical and evil people in the Western halls of power and influence that want to keep this war going for the sake of their own agendas. Exaggerating the losses from Russia and planting false hopes of a Ukrainian victory or “just peace” simply serves to dampen opposition for continued support of the war.
If the Western audiences realize that the war was an exercise of sacrificing Ukrainians by the millions in order to give Russia a bloody nose, the support for the war would fall precipitously.
When US politicians say “to the last Ukrainian”, they mean it. They could kill every last Ukrainian in furtherance of their anti-Russian obsession, and they would simply smile at the loss of more Slavic people: better a dead Slav than a Slav sympathetic to Russia. This is the kind of evil we are dealing with.
One indicator of manpower depletion on the Ukrainian side is the recruitment of up to 60-year olds. When Hitler had to do this in WW2 (the so called "Volkssturm") it was end of October 1944 and then he had another 7 months to go. Would fit nicely with your calculations.
I don’t understand why Russia does not make inroads 100 miles behind the lines and isolate the Ukraine front line. Why is Russia grinding when instead it could do end-runs and create vast cauldrons?
Warwick Powell: Excellent research work! Congratulations!! I think your analytical framework would benefit greatly from completing (the function) Energy with (the function) Information. Immediately, 3 more returns on investment become definable. EROII – Energy Return on Information Investment; IROII – Information Return on Information Investment; IROEI – Information Return on Energy Investment. The rationale behind is that the dual pair (Energy, Information) assesses specific configurations of Matter with respect to evolution: Energy broadly assesses the scalar capacity of Matter to evolve; Information broadly assesses the vector capacity of Matter to evolve or to evolve in specific directions. It is akin to the well known pair in physics (Energy, Momentum). Formally, the underneath pair of functions defines a projection of Matter in a two-dimensional space: (Energy,Information) = (Fe,Fi)(Matter). Keep on the excellent work!
Thank you for this excellent analysis! I do hope the EU Elites read this and understand it, thus reducing their senseless urge for all-out war against Russia. They have trained their populations to believe that Ukraine can win while Russia is failing. Their recent Euro90B "loan" to Ukraine will likely backfire when THEY end up paying reparations to Russia. They could come to their senses and understand that cooperation with Russia instead of outright hate, would be the best outcome for all.
Unfortunate the EU elites live in a bubble and tbh I wonder if they have the mental capacity to understand these kind of analyses. They probably read other ‘analyses’, that Ukraine is winning, just a little push and the Russians will surrender. After which they can claim the frozen assets. They have also been told that Putin is weak (it’s actually a dobbelganger cause the real Putin had cancer or some other disease we read multiple times) and the Kremlin is in a state of panic because of different fractions. Putin’s ratings, the dobbelganger, have gone down to a meager 72%. Millions have died on the battlefields, Ukraine is targeting multiple infrastructure in Russia, the Russians are weak, demotivated and desperate for a way out of this war. Most importantly: we are the good guys, we occupy the moral high ground and thus victory will be ours. Warwick Powell is a kremlin stooge, telling Russian propaganda.
The politicians are also surrounded by many yes sayers, who filter the information so the politicians only hear what they want to hear.
Time for a change. But who is going to make it happen?
Ideally, the Russians, meaning Pres. Putin, follow Iran's example. Invite these very ignorant EU Elites, primarily the E3 plus the EU Commission "leaders" including Ursula Wonderland, to Moscow, and read them the riot act - if ONE MORE of the drones/missiles that you mfg and supply to Ukraine is involved in an attack on Russia, this _____ (fill in the blank) is going to happen, and if that scenario occurs, then actually perform the predicted retaliation. Take out a NATO base, or whatever.
"Their recent E90M "loan" to Ukraine "
Correction: 90 billion Euros.
Right! Thank you! And this isn't their first one!
Its not yet paid.
It is an IOUIOU - a promise to lend meant to extend Kiev credibility a little longer, not meant to be really paid.
Seems that the pay by bits. It will only prolong the suffering and worsen the position of Ukraine in a final peace settlement.
Excellent analysis
One does wonder if a massive decapitation strike on the capital, the oligarchs and leadership with consequent losses would have been kinder than exterminating 1 million soldiers, many press ganged.
This is an excellent question, though in practice not an easy alternative option to execute,
The main issue i guess is that without some kind f government structure the Nazis would just go crazy killing anyone speaking Russian leading to horrendous civilian casuaties.
Even now, it is not clear what happens after the tipping point. It appears Putin very much wants a kiev government, initially lead by zelensky as the best hope for stability in rump .
The disaster scenario is no Kiev government, Nazis being chased by Russian soldiers across a 600k sqkm country with all the pre-thought of an Iraq or an Afghanistan.
The only significant country in Nato to have actually doubled or more head count and Defence spend has been Poland. I think there has to be a role planned for them. Possibly explaining recent Kiev hostility to Poland - the burial of Melnik surely has to have been a deliberate provocation
Drone math suggests denial of food and fuel to Crimea this summer. There is already gas rationing and all but military vehicles are banned from the M14. Which makes them easier for drones to find and destroy. Air defense units are dwindling too. Crimea will soon be clear of occupiers.
Not a dream in Crimea. More like a nightmare…
“Russia rations fuel in Crimea's Sevastopol amid 'logistical challenges', governor says.
May 23 (Reuters) - Russia has introduced fuel rationing for cars in the port city of Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea, the local governor said.
Mikhail Razvozhayev said that, due to unspecified "logistical challenges", fuel sales in the largest Crimean city and home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet have been limited to 20 litres (5.3 gallons) per car until the situation stabilises.
On Wednesday, Reuters reported that virtually all major oil refineries in central Russia had been forced to halt or scale back fuel output following Ukrainian drone attacks in recent days.”
Just because you don’t like it doesn’t make it untrue Marty
https://meduza.io/en/news/2026/05/22/no-fuel-none-at-all-independent-gas-stations-in-russia-face-gasoline-shortage-after-ukrainian-drone-strikes-on-refineries
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/22/sevastopol-begins-rationing-gasoline-due-to-logistical-challenges-a92825
Stick to doing blow drys and celebrity gossip
Other analysts paint a very different picture, understand the Russian loss rate to be much higher, and provide sources for all their data, assumptions and assertions.
This article gives no consideration to the impact of drone technology, nor to Ukraine having largely eliminated its dependencies on the US.
Even at a higher loss rate the modelling points to a January window. Drones have little to do with how the attrition unfolds. See the original essay for the details.
Unless evolving drone usage changes the loss rates.
But whose drone usage do you think of here and above? Both sides deploy drones with advanced AI guidance systems and tactics.
UK is promising to build 150k for Ukraine next year ... whereas Russia has already built more which ready to deploy now.
Choose your analysts, don't let your analysts choose you. This Ukraine war game has been built on lies for decades.
There is a word for the analysts hyping up larger Russian loss rates: propagandists.
Throughout the war we have been told that the Russians were running out of missiles (a narrative from 2022), were scavenging microchips from washing machines, or were fighting with shovels. And yet the videos of press gangs dragging civilians into vans to become short-lived cannon fodder are coming at a steady stream from Ukraine, and not at all from Russia.
There are a lot of cynical and evil people in the Western halls of power and influence that want to keep this war going for the sake of their own agendas. Exaggerating the losses from Russia and planting false hopes of a Ukrainian victory or “just peace” simply serves to dampen opposition for continued support of the war.
If the Western audiences realize that the war was an exercise of sacrificing Ukrainians by the millions in order to give Russia a bloody nose, the support for the war would fall precipitously.
When US politicians say “to the last Ukrainian”, they mean it. They could kill every last Ukrainian in furtherance of their anti-Russian obsession, and they would simply smile at the loss of more Slavic people: better a dead Slav than a Slav sympathetic to Russia. This is the kind of evil we are dealing with.
One indicator of manpower depletion on the Ukrainian side is the recruitment of up to 60-year olds. When Hitler had to do this in WW2 (the so called "Volkssturm") it was end of October 1944 and then he had another 7 months to go. Would fit nicely with your calculations.
I don’t understand why Russia does not make inroads 100 miles behind the lines and isolate the Ukraine front line. Why is Russia grinding when instead it could do end-runs and create vast cauldrons?
Putin's confidence? What the fuck are you talking about? Vladimir?
Warwick Powell: Excellent research work! Congratulations!! I think your analytical framework would benefit greatly from completing (the function) Energy with (the function) Information. Immediately, 3 more returns on investment become definable. EROII – Energy Return on Information Investment; IROII – Information Return on Information Investment; IROEI – Information Return on Energy Investment. The rationale behind is that the dual pair (Energy, Information) assesses specific configurations of Matter with respect to evolution: Energy broadly assesses the scalar capacity of Matter to evolve; Information broadly assesses the vector capacity of Matter to evolve or to evolve in specific directions. It is akin to the well known pair in physics (Energy, Momentum). Formally, the underneath pair of functions defines a projection of Matter in a two-dimensional space: (Energy,Information) = (Fe,Fi)(Matter). Keep on the excellent work!