China's Rise
A discussion about the Chinese economy, its historical trajectories and patterns
I had the pleasure of joining WTFinance for a deep dive into the Chinese economy. The discussion covered historic patterns and phases of development, the current phase of what I call the rotation of ‘composition of social capital’ and ways of understanding recent policy measures. I also discuss the interactions with the global economy via trade relations and capital flows.
In terms of understanding what’s going on now, I point to a three dimensional rotation wrapped by an energy transition. The three dimensions are:
Sectoral - a transition away from residential property development as a dominant feature of capital formation.
Demographic - a focus on the lower 3 quintiles of household income earners.
Geographic - as a corollary of demographics is a focus on T3 and below cities, as well as the revitalisation of rural economies.